BoA / ML assess the probability of a US recession within 12 months as one in three Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News
A bit of an ICYMI, I wanted to post this yesterday but didn't … it seemed to have slipped through the cracks!
Probably for the best given the surging equities markets overnight ;-D
Anyway, as a catch up:
- Bank of America / Merrill Lynch revised forecast citing the worsening uncertainty around the continuing US – China trade war
- & the resulting slowdown in the global economy, fall in business activity
- "Our official model has the probability of a recession over the next 12 months only pegged at about 20 per cent, but our subjective call based on the slew of data and events leads us to believe it is closer to a one-in-three chance"
Specifically worried on three of the five indicators that track business performance
- industrial production,
- automotive sales
- aggregated number of hours worked